AUD/USD Weekly Analysis (week of 04-08/01)

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Weekly Summary

Aussie/Dollar is trading around 0.7771 after starting the week at zero (up 0.%) .

The Australian dollar green move comes while some more encouraging signs are out as the United States Unemployment Rate beats expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over previous data of 6.7.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for the Australian dollar, as EUR/AUD drops to 1.5728 (74 pips).

At the same time, the Kiwi lost 16 pips from the start of the session, trading at 0.724 levels. The Euro/Dollar lost 46 pips from the start of the session, trading at 1.2229 levels.

In the meantime, Singapore Dollar is trading around 1.3252. The Canadian dollar is trading around 1.2686.

Jan. 8, 2021

Stable day for Australian dollar, parking at 0.7771

(23:06) GMT

This limbo state for Aussie/Dollar is reflected by market data published as United States Non Farm Payrolls published today at 1:30 PM came out at -140,000, falling short of the 71,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 336,000 figure. The United States Unemployment Rate beat expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over the previous data of 6.7. Data for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) released yesterday at 3:00 PM came out at 57.2, beating projections of 54.6 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 55.9.

While the Aussie was pretty flat today, mixed performances were seen elsewhere as EUR/AUD went down to 1.5728 (74 pips). The New-Zealand Dollar dropped 0.23% (16 pips) to 0.724.

The Relative Strength Index indicates the Aussie/Dollar is in overbought condition, keep an eye out for a slowdown of gains. The upper Bollinger band is at 0.7781, indicating a downward move might be next. Overall, technical indicators suggest the Aussie/Dollar has no obvious direction for the immediate future.

Jan. 7, 2021

Aussie is down 33 pips (0.43%), trading around 0.777

(22:06) GMT

This downslide might be related to financial indicators data published earlier as United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) fell short of the 88,000 projections, at -123,000 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 304,000.

Meanwhile, Australia's Balance of Trade published yesterday at 12:30 AM came out at 5.02 billion, falling short of the 6.00 billion projections and continuing its decline from the previous 7.46 billion figure. The Data for Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov) released yesterday at 12:30 AM is better than expected at 2.6, but worse than the previous figure of 3.8.

Taking a wider perspective, performance of these other symbols usually suggests a setback for the Aussie/Dollar as USD/SGD is trading around 1.3245 (up 69 pips). The Kiwi lost 33 pips from the start of the session, trading at 0.7258 levels.

The Relative Strength Index indicates the Australian dollar is in overbought condition, keep an eye out for a slowdown of gains. The upper Bollinger band was at 0.7763, indicating a further downward move might be next. Overall, technical indicators suggest the Aussie/Dollar has no obvious direction for the immediate future.

The market will be looking forward to the upcoming release of the following indicators: Projections for United States Non Farm Payrolls are set for a continuation of decline at 71,000 while previous data was 245,000, Data will be released today at 1:30 PM. Projections for the United States Unemployment Rate are set for a continuation of decline at 6.8 while previous data was 6.7, Data will be released today at 1:30 PM. United States Average Hourly Earnings looks to be getting worse with an expected 0.2 while the preceding figure was 0.3, New data will be out today at 1:30 PM.

Jan. 6, 2021

Australian dollar trade at 0.7803, disappointing United States Crude Oil Inventories data

(19:06) GMT

AUD/USD now trading at 0.7803 after United States Crude Oil Inventories new data of -8.01 million was released, above the previous figure.

The Canadian Dollar dropped to 1.2673 (105 pips). The Kiwi made some headway from 0.7257 to 0.7292 (0.48%, 34 pips). EUR/AUD went down to 1.578 (73 pips).

The Relative Strength Index indicates the Aussies are in overbought condition, Keep an eye out for a slowdown in gains. The upper Bollinger band is at 0.7772, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, technical indicators suggest the Aussie/Dollar has no obvious direction for the immediate future.

United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) fell short of the 88000 projections, at -123000 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 304000. The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) came out at 60.7, above the estimate of 56.6. This is also a step forward from the previous data of 57.5.

Australia's Balance of Trade is projected to come out at 6.20 billion – worse than previous data of 7.46 billion, Data will be released today at 12:30 AM. Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov) expected to decline to 3.5, while its preceding data was 3.8, data will be available today at 12:30 AM.

Aussie/Dollar social media highlights:

Jan. 5, 2021

Aussie/Dollar goes back up to April 2018 levels, reaching 0.7772 as 2021 continues as volatile as 2020 ended

(19:06) GMT

Starting the session at 0.7674, AUD/USD rallied above 0.7772 for the first time in 2 years, gaining 93 pips, and is now trading at 0.7767.

The Australian dollar record rate comes as global asset managers are struggling to make sense of what is next in 2021 while 2020 draws to a close, a year hammered by an unprecedented health crisis, with the WHO's declaration of a COVID-19 Pandemic on March 11. Global markets dropped at record speed to uncharted lows and then backed by a flood of central banks , the trend reversed, and markets surged to all-time highs. The Australian currency followed path ending 2020 on a strong note.

Data out yesterday – United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5. The United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) released yesterday at 3:00 PM with a figure of 51.5, This is better than the previous number of 48.4.

The Australian dollar's nearest support level is at 0.7628. The Relative Strength Index shows the Australian dollar has gone up above 70 going into overbought territory. At 0.767, Australian dollar made an initial breakout above the 5 day Simple Moving Average. Medium-term trend indication has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses above the MACD signal line. The CCI indicator is above 100, indicating a possible start of a new uptrend. The Australian dollar has just crossed the upper Bollinger band at 0.774, indicating further gains might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Australian dollar is likely to continue pointing upward in the short term.

In the meantime, new year year high for the New-Zealand Dollar is at 0.7215. The Euro rallied beyond 1.2311 for the first time in 2 years. At 1.5836, EUR/AUD is down to its lowest value in 1 year. The Canadian Dollar fell to 1.2675, hitting a 2 year low.

The market is looking forward to United States Crude Oil Inventories projected to outperform the last figure at -1.50 million, while it previously stood at -6.07 million, data will be released today at 3:30 PM. The United States's new ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) data will be available today at 1:15 PM. Data is expected to decline to 88000 from its previous value of 307000. United States FOMC Meeting Minutes are scheduled to come out today at 7:00 PM. United States Factory Orders look to be getting worse with an expected 0.7 while the preceding figure was 1, New data will be out today at 3:00 PM.

Australian dollar social media highlights:

Jan. 4, 2021

Aussie goes back up to April 2018 levels, reaching 0.7743

(21:06) GMT

After opening at 0.77, AUD/USD reached 0.7743, breaking a 2 year record. Later, it lost 80 pips and is now trading at 0.7662.

Meanwhile, United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday at 2:45 PM with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5.

The Aussie is getting close and is now only 34 pips from the support line at 0.7628. Dipping below it might indicate further losses are ahead. The Relative Strength Index has fallen below 70 – exiting overbought conditions and indicating possible moderate gains or a downward correction is a head. At 0.767, Aussie/Dollar made an initial breakout below the 5 day Simple Moving Average. Medium-term trend indication has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses below the MACD signal line. The CCI indicator is above 100, indicating a possible start of a new uptrend. The upper Bollinger band was at 0.7723, indicating a further downward move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape – although indicators are mixed and some are pointing in different directions, it seems it seems further drawbacks may be next for the Australian dollar.

Around the markets, mixed performances are seen elsewhere as At 1.5848, EUR/AUD is down to its lowest value in 1 year. At 1.2692, Canadian dollar is down to its lowest value in 2 years. The Euro hit 1.2311, highest rate in 2 years. After a 2 year hiatus, the Kiwi is back at 0.721 levels.

The market will be looking forward to the upcoming release of the following indicators: United States's new ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data will be available today at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 56.5 from its previous value of 57.5. United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) will be released today at 3:00 PM. The United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is scheduled for tomorrow at 9:30 PM.

Australian dollar social media highlights: