Crude OIL (week of 31-04/06)

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Weekly Summary

Crude oil rallied beyond $69.74 for the first time in 2 years .

After dipping down to $66.43, Oil regained earlier losses, closing $69.39. (Trade Oil with FXTM now).

Uptick comes while some more positive signs for Oil are out as data for United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) released yesterday at 2:00 PM comes out at 64, beating projections of 63 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 62.7. Data for United States Initial Jobless Claims released yesterday at 12:30 PM comes out at 385,000, beating projections of 390,000 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 405,000.

At the same time, United States Crude Oil Inventories fall short of the -2.44 million projections, with -5.08 million and continued its downward trajectory from previous figure of -1.66 million.

A look at other markets also show green moves as EUR/NZD rallies beyond 1.701 for the first time in 4 months. EUR/AUD climbs to 1.5851, a new 4 months high. After 2 months hiatus, Dollar/Yen is back at 110.33 levels.

At the same time at 1.3185, USD/SGD is down to its lowest value in 3 months. Aussie/Dollar drops to 0.7642, as it hits a 6 weeks low.

Jun. 4, 2021

Oil rallied beyond $69.74 for the first time in 2 years

(23:27) GMT

After starting the day at $68.9, Oil rallied to $69.74, hitting its highest point in 2 years, it later lost 35 cents and closed at $69.39.

This move comes while some more positive signs for Oil are out as United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) comes out at 64, above the estimate of 63. This is also a step forward from the previous data of 62.7. Data for United States Initial Jobless Claims released yesterday at 12:30 PM comes out at 385,000, beating projections of 390,000 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 405,000.

On the flip side United States Crude Oil Inventories fall short of the -2.44 million projections, with -5.08 million and continued its downward trajectory from previous figure of -1.66 million.

A study of Oil's graph shows key levels to watch: Crude oil immediate resistance is around $69.49, nearest support level is at $66.38. In terms of trend indicators, we can see that the CCI indicator is above 100. When the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) is at this level it means the price is above the average price as measured by the indicator, indicating a possible start of a new uptrend. Asset volatility analysis shows that the upper Bollinger band is at $69.68, this is a slight indication of a slowdown.

Overall, the technical analysis picture suggests Oil is neutral for the immediate future, with no clear-cut direction.

A look at other markets also show green moves as new 4 months high for EUR/AUD at 1.5847. AUD/USD gained 1.14%, currently at 0.774.

At the same time Dollar/Yen made its largest single-day drop of 69 pips (0.7%) since November 2020.

Crude oil started the year by gaining 29.62%. A study of Oil's past performance indicates that it is currently on an up trend that started around 1 year, 1 month ago.

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