Crude OIL Weekly Analysis (week of 04-08/01)

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Weekly Summary

After starting the week at zero, Crude oil moves to $52.73 (up $52.73) .

The Crude oil green move took place amid mixed market indicators - United States Crude Oil Inventories fell short of the -2.13 million projections, to -8.01 million and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of -6.07 million.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for crude, as USD/ZAR drops to 15.2829 (139 pips).

In the meantime, USD/MXN is trading around 19.9785. USD/SGD is trading around 1.3252. The Canadian dollar is trading around 1.2686. EUR/NZD is trading around 1.6881.

Jan. 8, 2021

Crude climbs to $52.73 up $1.9

(23:27) GMT

This move comes while some more positive signs for crude oil are out as the United States Unemployment Rate beats expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over previous data of 6.7. Data for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) released yesterday at 3:00 PM came out at 57.2, beating projections of 54.6 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 55.9.

On the flip side, United States Non Farm Payrolls published today at 1:30 PM came out at -140,000, falling short of the 71,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 336,000 figure.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for crude oil, as USD/ZAR went down to 15.2829 (139 pips).

At the same time, USD/MXN is trading around 19.9785.

The Relative Strength Index indicates crude oil is in overbought condition, keep an eye out for a slowdown of gains. The upper Bollinger band is at $51.58, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, the technical analysis suggests crude oil is neutral for the immediate future, with no clear-cut direction.

Jan. 7, 2021

Oil trades at $50.92 after good United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data

(22:27) GMT

Crude was mostly unaffected by the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) beating expectations with new data of 57.2, now trading at $50.92.

USD/ZAR is trading around 15.4251 after starting the session at 15.06 (down 2.42%). USD/MXN is trading around 20.0125 after starting the session at 19.638 (down 1.91%). The Singapore Dollar is trading around 1.3243 (up 67 pips).

The Relative Strength Index shows crude has gone up above 70 going into overbought territory. The upper Bollinger band is at $50.12, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems crude oil is likely to reverse course and start pointing down in the short term.

United States Crude Oil Inventories fell short of the -2.13 million projection to -8.01 million and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of -6.07 million. The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) published yesterday came out at -123,000, falling short of the 88,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 304,000 figure.

United States Non Farm Payrolls looks to be getting worse with an expected 71,000 while the preceding figure was 245,000, New data will be out today at 1:30 PM. The United States Unemployment Rate is expected to decline to 6.8 when its preceding data was 6.7, Data will be available today at 1:30 PM.

Crude oil social media highlights:

Jan. 6, 2021

Crude trade at $50.52, disappointing United States Crude Oil Inventories data

(22:27) GMT

Crude is now trading at $50.52 after United States Crude Oil Inventories new data of -8.01 million was released, above the previous figure.

The Canadian Dollar went down to 1.2678 (100 pips). USD/MXN went down to 19.6343 (237 pips). USD/ZAR is trading around 15.0583 after starting the session at 14.9719 (down 0.58%).

The upper Bollinger band is at $50, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems a reverse of course in the short term might be next for oil.

Released yesterday at 3:30 PM, United States's Crude Oil Inventories showed an uptick coming in to 792000, up from the previous number of 27000. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) fell short of the 88000 projections, at -123000 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 304000.

United States Crude Oil Inventories are expected today at 3:30 PM. The United States's new ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data will be available today at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 54.6 from its previous value of 55.9.

Crude social media highlights:

Jan. 5, 2021

Oil rallies beyond $50.2 for the first time in 10 months

(22:27) GMT

After opening at $47.62, oil reached $50.2, breaking a 10 month record. Later, it lost $40 and is now trading at $49.8.

Meanwhile, United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock released earlier shows an improvement to -1.66 million from the preceding data of -4.79 million, but falls short of the projected -1.50 million. The United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5. Released yesterday at 3:00 PM, United States's ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) showed an uptick, coming in at 51.5, up from the previous number of 48.4.

Crude oil broke through the $49.1 resistance, and climbed above $70. At $47.57, crude oil made an initial breakout above the 21 day Simple Moving Average. The CCI indicator is above 100, indicating a possible start of a new uptrend. Crude has just crossed the upper Bollinger band at $49.52, indicating further gains might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems crude oil is pretty hot and might continue pointing upward in the short term.

USD/ZAR is trading around 14.969 (up 257 pips).

In the meantime, Canadian Dollar fell to 1.2675, hitting a 2 year low. The EUR/NZD fell to 1.6983, hitting a 10 month low. At 1.3189, USD/SGD is down to its lowest value in 2 years.

The market is looking forward to United States Crude Oil Inventories projected to outperform the last figure at -1.50 million, while it previously stood at -6.07 million, data will be released today at 3:30 PM. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) expected to decline to 88000, while its preceding data was 307000, data will be available today at 1:15 PM. United States FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 7:00 PM. United States Factory Orders are expected to decline to 0.7 when its preceding data was 1, Data will be available today at 3:00 PM.

Oil social media highlights:

Jan. 4, 2021

Crude goes back up to February 2020 levels, reaching 49.83

(22:27) GMT

After opening at 48.52, crude reached 49.83, breaking a 10 month record. Later, it lost 2.48 dollars and is now trading at 47.35.

Meanwhile, United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday at 2:45 PM with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5.

Crude is getting closer and is now only 1.64 dollars from the support line at 45.71. Dipping below it might indicate further losses are ahead. At 47.57, crude oil made an initial breakout below the 21 day Simple Moving Average. The lower Bollinger band at 46.33, indicating a positive correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape – although indicators are mixed and some are pointing in different directions, it seems oil might reverse course and start pointing upward in the short term.

Taking a wider perspective, performance of these other symbols usually suggests a setback for oil, as USD/MXN is trading around 19.9632 after starting the session at 19.7843 (down 0.9%).

At the same time, at 1.6982, EUR/NZD is down to its lowest value in 10 months. At 1.2692, Canadian dollar is down to its lowest value in 2 years. At 1.32, USD/SGD is down to its lowest value in 2 years.

The market will keep its eye on the following upcoming macroeconomics indicators: United States's new ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data will be available today at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 56.5 from its previous value of 57.5. United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) is scheduled for today at 3:00 PM. The United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is scheduled for today at 9:30 PM.

Crude social media highlights: