Crude OIL Weekly Analysis (week of 09-13/11)

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Weekly Summary

A good end to the trading week, Oil gains 2.98 dollars and hovers at 40.12 level.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for crude, as USD/MXN went down to 20.392 (195 pips). USD/ZAR went down to 15.4949 (137 pips).

In the meantime, USD/SGD is trading around 1.3473. The Canadian dollar is trading around 1.3134. EUR/NZD is trading around 1.728.

Nov. 13, 2020

Oil goes down to 40.12 after starting the day at 41.12 (down -2.43%)

(22:27) GMT

After starting the day at 41.12, crude went up to 40.94 only to drop back to starting point range and is now trading at 40.12.

On the flip side, United States Crude Oil Inventories came out at 4.278, above the estimate of -0.913. This is also a step forward from the previous data of -7.998. Data for United States Initial Jobless Claims released Thursday at 1:30 PM came out at 709, beating projections of 735 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 757.

Meanwhile, United States Core Consumer Prices came out at zero, while the projection was 0.2.

Positive performance can be seen looking at other symbols as USD/MXN drops to 20.392 (195 pips). USD/ZAR drops to 15.4949 (137 pips).

At 41.03, crude oil made an initial breakout below the 3 day Simple Moving Average. The nearest support level is at 34.48.

Nov. 12, 2020

Trend reversal? after four days of going up, Crude oil down 53 cents today

(22:27) GMT

Oil is down to 40.92 having started the day at 41.47, overall a -1.28% move or 53 cents today.

On the flip side, positive data for crude oil was released earlier when United States Initial Jobless Claims beat expectations of 735 with new data released of 709. This is also a step forward from the previous data of 757.

Meanwhile, data for United States Crude Oil Inventories released today at 4:00 PM is better than expected at -0.518, but worse than the previous figure of 0.936. United States Core Consumer Prices published today at 1:30 PM came out at 1.6, falling short of the 1.8 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 1.7 figure.

Taking a wider perspective, performance of these other symbols usually suggests a setback for crude oil as the Canadian Dollar is trading around 1.3135 (up 76 pips).

At the same time, at 1.7062, EUR/NZD is down to its lowest value in 8 months.

The nearest support level is at 34.48.

The market will be looking forward to the upcoming release of the following indicators: Tomorrow at 1:30 PM, data for the United States Producer Price Index will be released, with an expected decline to 0.2 from the preceding figure of 0.4. The United States's new Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) data will be available tomorrow at 1:30 PM. Data is expected to decline to 0.2 from its previous value of 0.4. The United States's new Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) data will be available tomorrow at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 78.6 from its previous value of 79.2.

Nov. 11, 2020

Crude oil goes back up to Sep. 1 levels, reaching 43.06

(22:27) GMT

After starting the day at 41.79, crude rallied to 43.06, hitting its highest point in 2 months, It later lost 1.64 dollars and is now trading at 41.42

This limbo state for Crude is reflected by market data published as United States JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) released earlier, shows an improvement to 6.436 from the preceding data of 6.352, but falls short of the projected 6.5. The United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock released earlier shows an improvement to -5.147 from the preceding data of -8.01, but falls short of the projected -0.9. The United States 10-Year Note Auction was released on Tuesday at 6:01 PM with a figure of 0.96, This is better than the previous number of 0.765.

Crude oil sails past the 41.46 resistance, and climbs to 41.42.

Meanwhile, mixed performance are seen elsewhere, as at 1.7133, EUR/NZD is down to its lowest value in 8 months. At 1.3463, Singapore Dollar is down to its lowest value in 9 months. At 1.3004, Canadian dollar is down to its lowest value in 10 months. USD/MXN is trading around 20.458 after starting the session at 20.2829 (down 0.86%).

Data to be released later might clear up some of the fog for oil as United States Crude Oil Inventories are projected to outperform last figure at -0.913 while it previously stood at -7.998, data will be released tomorrow at 4:00 PM. United States Initial Jobless Claims projected to outperform last figure with 735, while it previously stood at 751, data will be released tomorrow at 1:30 PM. The United States Core Consumer Prices figure is projected at 0.2 while it previously stood at 0.2, data will be released tomorrow at 1:30 PM. The United States Federal Budget Balance (Oct) expected to decline to -274.5 when its preceding data was -125, Data will be available tomorrow at 7:00 PM.

Nov. 10, 2020

After 2 months hiatus, Crude oil is back at 41.84 levels.

(22:27) GMT

Starting the session at 39.91, crude rallied above 41.84 for the first time in 2 months, gaining 1.51 dollars, and is now trading at 41.8.

Meanwhile, United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock released earlier shows an improvement to -5.147 from the preceding data of -8.01, but falls short of the projected -0.9. The United States 10-Year Note Auction was released today at 6:01 PM with a figure of 0.96, This is better than the previous number of 0.765.

At 39.16, crude oil made an initial breakout above the 50 day Simple Moving Average. Crude is getting closer and is now only 1.6 dollars from the resistance line at 41.46, crossing it might suggest further gains are ahead.

USD/ZAR is trading around 15.6349 after starting the session at 15.3887 (down 1.6%).

In the meantime, at 1.3467, Singapore Dollar is down to its lowest value in 9 months. At 1.2995, Canadian dollar is down to its lowest value in 10 months. At 1.725, EUR/NZD is down to its lowest value in 4 months.

The market is looking forward to the United States OPEC Monthly Report which will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM. The United States Seevol Cushing Storage Report is excepted tomorrow at 2:30 PM.

Nov. 9, 2020

Crude oil trades at 39.84 after making its largest single-day jump - 7.27 7.27 since May. 5

(22:27) GMT

At 37.45, Oil made an initial breakout below the 10 day Simple Moving Average. The nearest resistance level is at 41.46.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for crude, as USD/MXN went down to 20.2709 (296 pips).

In the meantime, at 1.3407, USD/SGD is down to its lowest value in 2 years. At 1.2924, Canadian dollar is down to its lowest value in 2 years. EUR/NZD made its largest single-day drop (204 pips) since Apr. 23.

The market is looking forward to United States JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) expected to decline to 5.59 when its preceding data was 6.493, Data will be available tomorrow at 3:00 PM. The United States EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled to come out tomorrow at 12:00 PM. The United States WASDE Report is scheduled to come out tomorrow at 5:00 PM. The United States 10-Year Note Auction is scheduled to come out tomorrow at 6:01 PM.