EUR/USD (week of 27-01/07)

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Weekly Summary

Euro-Dollar improves slightly to 1.0427, after ending the last session at zero (down 0%) .

A good end to the trading week, EUR/USD is up to 1.0427, after closing yesterday at zero. Overall, a 0% move or 10,426 pips this week. (Trade the Euro with FXTM now).

Uptick comes while some more positive signs for the Euro are out as data for Euro Zone CPI (YoY) (Jun) released today at 9:00 AM comes out at 8.6, beating projections of 8.4 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 8.1. Germany Unemployment Change (Jun) beats expectations of -6,000 with new data release of 133,000. This is also a step forward from the previous data of -4,000. United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) published today at 2:00 PM came out at 53, falling short of the 54.9 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 56.1 figure.

Meanwhile, beating their previous number of -15,600, Euro Zone CFTC EUR speculative net positions released -10,600 today at 7:30 PM. Italy CPI (MoM) (Jun) comes out at 1.2, better than analyst estimates of 0.6 and improving upon the previous reading of 0.8.

Outlook for rest of the week: The market is looking forward to the release of new data: Euro Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (May) is projected to rise to 0.3, beating the previous -1.3 figure. Official data is expected Wednesday. Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (May) is projected to outperform its last figure with -1. It previously stood at -2.7, and data will be released Wednesday. Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (May) is expected to come out at 0.3 when it's released Thursday, this is a decline from the preceding data which was 0.7.

Jul. 1, 2022

Euro-Dollar is down by 0.55%, trading at 1.0427

(23:00) GMT

Euro-Dollar is down to 1.0427, after ending yesterday at 1.0484. Overall, a 0.55% loss or 57 pips today.

On the flip side, Euro Zone CPI (YoY) (Jun) comes out at 8.6, better than analyst estimates of 8.4 and improving upon the previous reading of 8.1. Data for Germany Unemployment Change (Jun) released yesterday at 7:55 AM comes out at 133,000, beating projections of -6,000 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of -4,000.

Meanwhile, Euro Zone CFTC EUR speculative net positions released today at 7:30 PM with a figure of -10,600, while the previous figure was -15,600.

Trend analysis indicates that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicator is below -100, meaning the market price is unusually low and below its rolling moving average. Technical analysis indicates that a new, strong downtrend could be forthcoming with short positions favored. According to asset volatility analysis, Bollinger bands shows an indication of recovery: the lower band is at 1.0395, a low enough level to, generally, suggest that Euro-Dollar is trading below its value.

Overall, the technical outlook suggests the Euro is likely to remain muted for the immediate future, with no clear-cut direction.

In the meantime, negative performances are also seen in other pairs as AUD/USD is down to 0.6816, losing 86 pips, after closing at 0.6903 yesterday. After ending yesterday's session at 165.27, GBP/JPY lost 175 pips and is trading around 163.52.

Though the Euro has been dropping, other pairs have been performing better: USD/SGD gained 0.45%, currently at 1.3958.

The market will keep its eye on the following upcoming macroeconomics indicators: Euro Zone ECB's Schnabel speech is expected tomorrow at 1:15 PM.

Euro-Dollar has shed 6.12% over the past three months.

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