EUR/USD Weekly Analysis (week of 04-08/01)

This downslide might be related to financial indicators data published earlier as the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index fell short of the -0.2 projections, at -0.3 and marks no progress over the previous figure of -0.3. United States Non Farm Payrolls published today at 1:30 PM came out at -140,000, falling short of the 71,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 336,000 figure.

On the flip side, United States Unemployment Rate beat expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over previous data of 6.7.

Taking a wider perspective, performance of these other symbols usually suggests a setback for the Euro, as the Euro/Yen lost 35 pips from the start of the session, trading at 127.04 levels.

Also today , the Swiss franc is trading around 0.8851.

The upper Bollinger band at 1.2314, indicating a further downward move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems further drawbacks may be next for the Euro/Dollar

EUR/USD mostly unaffected by United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) beating expectations with new data of 57.2, now trading at 1.2271.

The Swiss franc is trading around 0.8845 (up 57 pips). The Aussie dropped 0.46% (35 pips) to 0.7768. The Euro/Yen is trading at 127.34 after gaining 0.27%.

The upper Bollinger band at 1.2325, indicating a further downward move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems further drawbacks may be next for the Euro.

The Euro Zone Consumer Price Index fell short of the -0.2 projection at -0.3 and marks no progress over the previous figure of -0.3. The Data for German Factory Orders released yesterday at 7:00 AM was better than expected at 2.3, but worse than the previous figure of 3.3.

French Consumer Spending is projected to decline to -15.1 while the previous data was 3.7, data will be released today at 7:45 AM. German Industrial Production seems to be pointing downwards with an expected 0.7 while the preceding figure was 3.2, New data will be released today at 7:00 AM.

Euro social media highlights:

EUR/USD now trading at 1.2335 after United States Crude Oil Inventories new data of -8.01 million was released, above the previous figure.

The Aussie is green with a 1.74% gain (133 pips), to 0.7807 levels. The Euro/Yen went up from 126.28 to 127 (0.57% 71 pips). The Dollar/Swiss went down to 0.8783 (27 pips).

The upper Bollinger band is at 1.2338, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems a reverse of course in the short term might be next for the Euro/Dollar

The German Unemployment Change released yesterday is better than expected at -37000 but down from preceding data of -40000 according to new data. The Data for Germany Retail Sales released yesterday was better than expected at 1.9, but worse than the previous figure of 2.6.

The Euro Zone ECB Monetary Policy Statement is expected today at 12:30 PM. Projections for Euro Zone Retail Sales are set for a continuation of decline with -3.4 while previous data was 1.5, Data will be released today at 10:00 AM.

Euro/Dollar social media highlights:

Starting the session at 1.2253, EUR/USD rallied above 1.2311 for the first time in 2 years, gaining 51 pips, and closed at 1.2305.

The Euro/Dollar record rate comes as global asset managers are struggling to make sense of what is next in 2021 while 2020 draws to a close, a year hammered by an unprecedented health crisis, with the WHO's declaration of a COVID-19 Pandemic on March 11. Global markets dropped at record speed to uncharted lows and then backed by a flood of central banks , the trend reversed, and markets surged to all-time highs. The Euro currency followed path ending 2020 on a strong note.

The Euro green move takes place amid mixed market indicators – Germany's Unemployment Change released yesterday at 8:55 AM is better than expected at -37000 but down from preceding data of -40000 according to new data.

More data out today as Data for Germany Retail Sales released yesterday at 7:00 AM is better than expected at 1.9, but worse than the previous figure of 2.6. The Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI published yesterday came out at 55.2, falling short of the 55.5 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 55.5 figure.

Euro broke through the 1.2308 resistance and climbed 3 pips above it. At 1.2256, Euro/Dollar made an initial breakout above the 5 day Simple Moving Average. The CCI indicator is above 100, indicating a possible start of a new uptrend. The upper Bollinger band is at 1.2322, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Euro/Dollar likely to continue pointing upward in the short term.

In the meantime, Aussies rallied beyond 0.7712 for the first time in 2 years. After a 2 year hiatus, New-Zealand Dollar is back at 0.7215 levels. At 0.8804, dollar/swiss is down to its lowest value in 5 years. Gold traded above the 1947 level for the first time in 8 weeks and a half.

The market is looking forward to Spain Services PMI projected to outperform the last figure with 45, while it previously stood at 39.5, data will be released today at 8:15 AM. The Euro Zone Composite PMI figure is projected at 49.8 while it previously stood at 49.8, data will be released today at 9:00 AM. France HICP (MoM) (Dec) scheduled to come out today at 7:45 AM. The French Consumer Price Index is expected today at 7:45 AM.

After starting the day at 1.2231, EUR/USD rallied to 1.2311, hitting its highest point in 2 years, it later lost 54 pips and closed at 1.2256

More data out today as the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI published yesterday at 9:00 AM came out at 55.2, falling short of the 55.5 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 55.5 figure.

The Euro is flirting with the 1.2308 immediate resistance line. At 1.2256, Euro/Dollar made an initial breakout above the 5 day Simple Moving Average. The upper Bollinger band is at 1.2319, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Euro is likely to continue pointing upward in the short term.

At the same time, at 0.88, dollar/swiss is down to its lowest value in 5 years. The Aussie/Dollar hit 0.7718, highest rate in 2 years. The Kiwi rallies beyond 0.721 for the first time in 2 years.

The market is looking forward to Germany. Retail Sales look to be getting worse with an expected -2 while the preceding figure was 2.6, New data will be out today at 7:00 AM. Germany's Unemployment Rate figure is projected at 6.1 while it previously stood at 6.1, data will be released today at 8:55 AM. Spain Unemployment Change is expected today at 8:00 AM. The United States's new ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data will be available today at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 56.5 from its previous value of 57.5.

Euro/Dollar social media highlights: