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Jul. 6, 2022

Euro-Dollar hits 1.0221, its lowest rate in 5 years

Live - Updated 50 minutes ago.

Euro-Dollar fell to a new low at 1.0221 today, its lowest value in 5 years; yesterday ended at 1.0268.

JOLTs Job Openings (May) data from United States will be released today at 2:00 PM with analysts expecting a decline to 11 million. Potentially significant price fluctuations in Euro-Dollar are expected to follow.

Meanwhile, Euro Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (May) released earlier shows an improvement to 0.2 from the preceding data of -1.4, but falls short of the projected 0.4. Germany IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun) released today at 7:30 AM with a figure of 45.9, which is better than its previous number of 45.4. Data for Euro Zone S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) released yesterday at 8:00 AM is better than expected with 52, but worse than previous figure of 54.8.

Momentum evaluation shows that the Relative Strength Index has gone below 30, going into oversold conditions and allowing more gains. Analysis based on the asset volatility indicates that Bollinger bands shows an indication of recovery: the lower band is at 1.0286, a low enough level to, generally, suggest that Euro-Dollar is trading below its value. Technical chart analysis shows the resistance level is at 1.0409, followed by 1.0584. Despite this, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicator is below -100, meaning the market price is unusually low and below its rolling moving average. Technical analysis indicates that a new, strong downtrend could be forthcoming with short positions favored.

Technical analysis indicates that Euro-Dollar's current downtrend might soon change course and start climbing up in the short term.

Positive performances can be seen by looking at other currencies as for the first time in 2 years, USD/SGD went above the 1.4 level.

At the same time, Euro-Yen broke through the 139.68 support line and dropped 31 pips below it. Euro-Pound dropped 0.39% to 0.8563, maintaining its downtrend.

Looking ahead, this trend may be prolonged as Euro Zone ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled to come out tomorrow at 11:30 AM.

The market will be looking for upcoming data regarding Germany's new Industrial Production (MoM) (May) data will be available tomorrow at 6:00 AM. Data is expected to decline to 0.4 from its previous value of 0.7. Germany Buba President Nagel speech is scheduled tomorrow at 5:30 PM. Euro Zone ECB's Enria speech set for tomorrow at 7:00 AM.

Euro-Dollar has shed 5.81% over the past three months.

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Week to date

After ending yesterday at 1.0223, Euro-Dollar drifts up to 1.0223 (down 10,223 pips) .

Trading week at a glance - EUR/USD is up to 1.0223, after closing yesterday at zero. Overall, a 0% move or 10,223 pips this week. (Trade the Euro with FXTM now).

Euro-Dollar upside coincides with further encouraging market factors as Euro Zone CPI (YoY) (Jun) comes out at 8.6, better than analyst estimates of 8.4 and improving upon the previous reading of 8.1. Germany Unemployment Change (Jun) beats expectations of -6,000 with new data release of 133,000. This is also a step forward from the previous data of -4,000.

At the same time, Euro Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (May) released earlier shows an improvement to 0.2 from the preceding data of -1.4, but falls short of the projected 0.4. Beating their previous number of 45.4, Germany IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Jun) released 45.9 today at 7:30 AM. Euro Zone S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) released yesterday at 8:00 AM is better than expected at 52 but down from preceding data of 54.8 according to new data.

Outlook for rest of the week: Euro Zone ECB President Lagarde speech will be released Friday. Euro Zone ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting is expected tomorrow at 11:30 AM.

The market is looking forward to the release of new data: Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (May) is expected to come out at 0.4 when it's released tomorrow at 6:00 AM, this is a decline from the preceding data which was 0.7.