USD/CAD Weekly Analysis (week of 04-08/01)

This in-between state of the Canadian Dollar is reflected by market data published as Canada Employment Change fell short of the -27,500 projections, at -62,600 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 62,100. Canada Ivey PMI (Dec) published yesterday at 3:00 PM came out at 46.7, falling short of the 54.7 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 52.7 figure. Canada's Unemployment Rate matches expectations with the new data release of 8.6. This is a step backward from the previous data of 8.5.

While the Canadian dollar was pretty flat today, mixed performance were seen elsewhere as crude is trading around $52.73 after starting the session at $50.83 (down 3.74%). USD/ZAR lost 139 pips from the start of the session, trading at 15.2829 levels.

The lower Bollinger band is at 1.264, indicating a positive move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Canadian Dollar might be pointing upward in the short term.

This in-between state for Canadian Dollar is reflected by market data published as Canada Ivey PMI (Dec) fell short of the 54.7 projections, at 46.7 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 52.7. Data for Canada Balance of Trade released yesterday at 1:30 PM came out at -3.34 billion, beating projections of -3.50 billion and showing improvement over the preceding figure of -3.73 billion. The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) published yesterday came out at -123,000, falling short of the 88,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 304,000 figure.

While the Canadian dollar is pretty flat so far today, mixed performances were seen elsewhere as the Singapore Dollar went up from 1.3175 to 1.3245 (0.53% 69 pips). USD/MXN is trading at 19.9663 after gaining 1.67%.

The lower Bollinger band is at 1.2648, indicating a positive move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Canadian Dollar might be pointing upward in the short term.

Data to be released later might clear up some of the fog for the Canadian Dollar as Canada Employment Change is expected to decline to -27,500 when its preceding data was 62,100, Data will be available today at 1:30 PM. Today at 1:30 PM, data for United States Non Farm Payrolls will be released, with an expected decline to 71,000 from the preceding figure of 245,000. The United States Unemployment Rate is projected to decline to 6.8 while previous data was 6.7, Data will be released today at 1:30 PM.

USD/CAD now trading at 1.2676 after United States Crude Oil Inventories new data of -8.01 million was released, above the previous figure.

USD/MXN lost 258 pips from the start of the session, trading at 19.613 levels. Crude is trading around $50.85 after starting the session at $49.93 (down 1.84%). The New-Zealand Dollar is trading around 0.7294 after starting the session at 0.7257 (down 0.51%).

The lower Bollinger band at 1.2646, indicating a positive correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Canadian Dollar might reverse course and start pointing upward in the short term.

Released yesterday, Canada's RMPI (MoM) (Nov) showed an uptick coming in at 0.6, up from the previous number of 0.5. The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) published yesterday at 1:15 PM came out at -123000, falling short of the 88000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 304000 figure.

Canada Ivey PMI (Dec) projected to outperform last figure with 54.7 while it previously stood at 52.7, data will be released today at 3:00 PM. The United States's new ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data will be available today at 3:00 PM. Data is expected to decline to 54.6 from its previous value of 55.9.

Canadian Dollar social media highlights:

After starting the day at 1.2779 USD/CAD dropped to 1.2652, hitting its lowest point in 2 years, it later recovered 24 pips and is now trading at 1.2677

Meanwhile, Canada RMPI (MoM) (Nov) released yesterday at 1:30 PM with a figure of 0.6, This is better than the previous number of 0.5. The United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5. Released yesterday at 3:00 PM, United States's ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) showed an uptick, coming in at 51.5, up from the previous number of 48.4.

The Canadian Dollar fell below the 1.27 support zone and receded 20 pips away from it. At 1.2764, Canadian Dollar made an initial breakout below the 5 day Simple Moving Average. Medium-term trend indication has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line crosses below the MACD signal line. The lower Bollinger band at 1.2658, indicating a positive correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape – although indicators are mixed and some are pointing in different directions, it seems further drawbacks may be next for the Canadian Dollar.

Positive performance can be seen looking at other symbols, as USD/ZAR is trading at 14.978 after gaining 1.81%.

At the same time, new 10 month high for oil at $50.05. The New year year high for the New-Zealand Dollar is at 0.7215. USD/SGD fell to 1.3189, hitting a 2 year low.

The market will be looking forward to the upcoming release of the following indicators: United States Crude Oil Inventories are projected to outperform the last figure at -1.50 million, while it previously stood at -6.07 million, data will be released today at 3:30 PM. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) expected to decline to 88000, while its preceding data was 307000, data will be available today at 1:15 PM. United States FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 7:00 PM. Today at 3:00 PM, data for United States Factory Orders will be released, with an expected decline to 0.7 from the preceding figure of 1.

Canadian Dollar social media highlights:

After opening at 1.2727, USD/CAD dropped to its lowest point in 2 years at 1.2661. It later recovered 121 pips and is now trading at 1.2783.

More data was out on Friday as the United States Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday at 2:45 PM with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.2908. At 1.2764, Canadian Dollar made an initial breakout above the 5 day Simple Moving Average. The upper Bollinger band is at 1.2907 and the lower is 1.2674. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Canadian Dollar is likely to continue pointing upward in the short term.

A look at other markets shows behavior that usually indicates a green move for the Canadian Dollar, as USD/MXN is trading at 19.9704 after gaining 0.94%.

Other assets are showing mixed performance, as after a 10 month hiatus, Crude is back at 49.33 levels. After a 2 year hiatus, the Kiwi is back at 0.721 levels. At 1.32, USD/SGD is down to its lowest value in 2 years.

The market is looking forward to Canada RMPI (MoM) (Nov) being released today at 1:30 PM. The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) expected to decline to 56.5, while its preceding data was 57.5, Data will be available today at 3:00 PM. United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) will be released today at 3:00 PM. The United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is expected tomorrow at 9:30 PM.