USD/JPY Weekly Analysis (week of 04-08/01)

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Weekly Summary

Yen moves to 103.95 (a 0.% gain) after starting the week at zero .

The Dollar/Yen green move comes while some more encouraging signs are out as the United States Unemployment Rate beats expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over previous data of 6.7. Data for the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) released yesterday at 3:00 PM came out at 57.2, beating projections of 54.6 and showing improvement over the preceding figure of 55.9.

On the flip side, United States Non Farm Payrolls published today at 1:30 PM came out at -140,000, falling short of the 71,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 336,000 figure.

At the same time, data for Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Nov) released yesterday at 11:30 PM is better than expected at 1.1, but worse than the previous figure of 1.9. Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Nov) published yesterday at 11:30 PM came out at -1.8, falling short of the -1.3 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 2.1 figure.

Outlook for rest of the week: market is looking forward to Japan's CFTC JPY speculative net positions is scheduled for Monday.

Jan. 8, 2021

Dollar/Yen up 0.11%, trading around 103.95

(23:12) GMT

This move comes while some more positive signs for the Dollar/Yen are out as the United States Unemployment Rate beats expectations of 6.8 with new data release of 6.7, marks no change over previous data of 6.7.

Nevertheless, United States Non Farm Payrolls published today at 1:30 PM came out at -140,000, falling short of the 71,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 336,000 figure.

More data out today as Data for Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Nov) released yesterday at 11:30 PM is better than expected at 1.1, but worse than the previous figure of 1.9.

The upper Bollinger band is at 104.11, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems a reverse of course in the short term might be next for the Yen

Jan. 7, 2021

Yen up 0.74%, trading around 103.79

(22:12) GMT

The Dollar/Yen green move takes place amid mixed market indicators – United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) published yesterday came out at -123,000, falling short of the 88,000 projections and continuing its decline from the previous 304,000 figure.

At the same time, data for the Japan Services PMI released yesterday is better than expected with 47.7, but worse than the previous figure of 47.8. Japan 10-Year JGB Auction came out at 0.019, marks no change from the preceding figure.

The upper Bollinger band is at 104.09, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems a reverse of course in the short term might be next for the Yen

The market is looking forward to Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Nov) expected to decline to -1.5, while its preceding data was 1.9, data will be available today at 11:30 PM. Japan's new Household Spending (MoM) (Nov) data will be available today at 11:30 PM. Data is expected to decline to -1.3 from its previous value of 2.1. United States Non Farm Payrolls looks to be getting worse with an expected 71,000 while the preceding figure was 245,000, New data will be out today at 1:30 PM.

Jan. 6, 2021

Yen moves up to 103.2 up 50 pips

(19:12) GMT

The Dollar/Yen green move took place amid mixed market indicators – United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) fell short of the 88000 projections, at -123000 and continued its downward trajectory from the previous figure of 304000.

More data out yesterday as data for Japan Services PMI released yesterday at 12:30 AM was better than expected at 47.7, but worse than the previous figure of 47.8. Japan 10-Year JGB Auction came out at 0.019, marks no change from the preceding figure.

The upper Bollinger band is at 104.05, indicating a negative correction might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems a reverse of course in the short term might be next for the Yen

The market is looking forward to Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Nov) is expected to come out at one when it's released tomorrow at 11:30 PM, This is a decline from the preceding data which was 2.1. Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Nov) is projected to rise to 2.5, beating the previous 1.9 figure. Official data is expected tomorrow at 11:30 PM. The United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) expected to decline to 54.6, while its preceding data was 55.9, Data will be available today at 3:00 PM.

Jan. 5, 2021

Dollar/Yen down to 102.57, the last time it was this low was 10 months and a half ago.

(21:12) GMT

Having started at 103.1 USD/JPY dropped to 102.57, hitting its lowest point in 10 months and a half, later it recovered 15 pips and is now trading at 102.72

Meanwhile, released yesterday, United States's Manufacturing PMI showed an uptick, coming in at 57.1, up from the previous number of 56.5. The United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) released yesterday at 3:00 PM with a figure of 51.5, This is better than the previous number of 48.4.

The Dollar/Yen resistance level is at 104.52. The CCI indicator is bellow -100, suggesting a possible downtrend may be on the cards. The Dollar/Yen has just crossed the lower Bollinger band at 102.77, indicating further loses might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the dollar/yen is likely to continue pointing down in the short term.

Also today – At 0.8804, dollar/swiss is down to its lowest value in 5 years. Gold traded above the 1947 level for the first time in 8 weeks and a half. EUR/CAD is eyeing the 1.5429 support line

The market will keep its eye on the following upcoming macroeconomics indicators: Japan's Services PMI is expected to decline to 47.2 when its preceding data was 47.8, data will be available today at 12:30 AM. The Japan 10-Year JGB Auction is scheduled to come out today at 3:35 AM. United States Crude Oil Inventories are projected to outperform the last figure at -1.50 million while it previously stood at -6.07 million, data will be released today at 3:30 PM. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) expected to decline to 88000, while its preceding data was 307000, data will be available today at 1:15 PM.

Jan. 4, 2021

Yen down to 102.68, the last time it was this low was 10 months

(21:12) GMT

After starting the day at 103.19, USD/JPY dropped to 102.68, hitting its lowest point in 10 months, It later recovered 45 pips and is now trading at 103.14

This limbo state for the Yen is reflected by market data published as the United States Manufacturing PMI released yesterday at 2:45 PM with a figure of 57.1, This is better than the previous number of 56.5.

The Yen's resistance level is at 104.52. At 103.29, dollar/yen made an initial breakout above the 5 day Simple Moving Average. The CCI indicator is bellow -100, suggesting a possible downtrend may be on the cards. The lower Bollinger band is at 102.86, indicating a positive move might be next. Overall, looking at the technical analysis landscape, it seems the Dollar/Yen might be pointing upward in the short term.

While the Dollar/Yen is pretty flat so far today, mixed performance is seen elsewhere as At 0.88, dollar/swiss is down to its lowest value in 5 years. The Pound/Yen rallied beyond 141.31 for the first time in 4 months. EUR/CAD approaches the closest resistance line at 1.5742 and is now only 157 pips away, crossing it might suggest further gains are ahead.

Data to be released later might clear up some of the fog for the Dollar/Yen as the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) is expected to come out at 56.5 when it's released today at 3:00 PM, This is a decline from the preceding data which was 57.5. United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) will be released today at 3:00 PM. The United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released tomorrow at 9:30 PM.

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